Press ReleasesThe FutureFriday, 07 May 2010Hi guys,From 17 May 2010 I have moved my small cap research into Standard Bank Online Share Trading. My research will be available exclusively... ...read full article here
Press ReleasesContinuitySA ExpandsWednesday, 05 May 2010[A major subsidiary of Dialgue] ContinuitySA has expanded its Business Continuity service capability in Cape Town with the news that it is about to... ...read full article here
General Small Cap NewsAfrimat's Big-Little AcquisitionTuesday, 04 May 2010Afrimat just announced the acquisition of Glen Douglas (no, not a whiskey!) from Exxaro Resources for R35 million.The Group goes on to explain that... ...read full article here
General Small Cap NewsFreeworld More ExpensiveTuesday, 04 May 2010In a trading update late yesterday, Freeworld announced that it expects its EPS and HEPS to be between 20% and 30% lower.The major blame for... ...read full article here
New ListingsWild and Smart?Monday, 03 May 2010RGT and Wilderness are two of the new listings with both having had less than a full months trading in their shares to date. There are numerous... ...read full article here
In a year in which stock exchanges around the world lived through terrifying times of financial paralysis, the JSE showed its resilience by weathering the storm. The bourse operator increased its revenue for the year to December 2009 by 8 percent to R1.156 billion. Our dividend was maintained at R1.92 a share.
The JSE Limited's results have been explored in depth by the financial media so I will not dwell on them further in this column. However, chief executive Russell Loubser and I recently travelled around the country holding report-back meetings. At these presentations, we emphasised the fundamental imbalances that are prevailing in world markets and just how fragile they are. We also pointed out that when the global banking system imploded it was the JSE's surveillance capability that enabled safe short selling and the soundness of our banks that saved our country from severe financial stress.
One of the questions frequently asked at these meetings was why there has been limited activity on our AltX board for small and medium-sized companies.
In times of recession there is always a "flight to safety" to the big counters, where investors feel that risks, inherent in times of financial stress, will not be as drastic. Yet who would have believed that at the end of 2008 the share price of Anglo American would be down 50 percent and that other JSE stalwarts, such as BHP Billiton, Sasol, Anglo Platinum, AngloGold Ashanti, Absa, Standard Bank and Kumba Iron Ore would have dropped by similar percentages?
In my early stockbroking days I was personally involved with four businessmen: Raymond Ackerman, Donny Gordon, Bill Lynch and Brian Joffe, who built companies over the past 30 years that are large by any international standards. All these men had to start somewhere.
Pick n Pay listed at 66c in 1968. The issue price equivalent now would be 0.0039c. Since 1968 the share price has split a cumulative 168 times. The Imperial Group listed in February 1987 at 69c a share.
Where would we be if we didn't have AltX? Without a platform for more than 70 small and medium-sized companies to raise capital. These listings also provide the companies with the money to make acquisitions, a higher profile in the media and, through share options, the ability to retain and motivate staff. The market capitalisation of these companies ranges from R10 million to more than R1 billion.
Contrary to perception, AltX is not biased towards construction shares and, in fact, mirrors a broad spectrum of the South African economy. Broken down by the number of companies in each sector: 21 percent are telecoms and technology, 18 percent construction and materials, 16 percent financials, 13 percent consumer goods and services and 21 percent other industrial. Mining comprises only 8 percent of the companies on the board.
I would say that AltX is probably more a barometer of the South African economy than the Top 40 stocks. The smaller stocks accurately represent what is happening on the ground in South Africa. If South Africa is hurting, so is AltX.
An AltX listing is just one step in the evolution of a company. Since AltX opened its doors in October 2003 six companies have successfully made the leap from AltX to the main board.
The pipeline of aspirant businesses interested in listing on AltX is strong and many are preparing themselves for a listing when the economy improves. Bear in mind that South African equity markets traditionally lag their peers.
When I look at the fundamentals of most of the companies listed on AltX, that is, the balance sheets, income statements and cash flows, there is a great deal of inherent value. There is no doubt in my mind that by carefully selecting and monitoring a number of AltX stocks an investor has a very good chance of achieving the same sort of gains over the next 10 years as would have been attained by investing in, say, a Bidvest 10 years ago.
I note with interest the initiative by Business Leadership SA to ask South Africa's most successful entrepreneurs what it would take to double the size of their businesses in the next 10 years - with the larger vision of doubling the size of our economy by 2040. I would suggest that much of this discussion should involve the management of AltX companies.
If the 2040 vision is achieved, a number of these companies will by then be the size that Pick n Pay, Liberty Group, Imperial and Bidvest are today.
Evidence that the JSE competes with the best global exchanges when it comes to developing innovative products and services has been our development of the derivatives market. Our latest offering for investors is to trade in gold, platinum and sweet crude oil on the JSE's commodity derivatives market.
Previously only agricultural commodities were offered and investors were dependent on using their foreign exchange allowances, which are subject to exchange control regulations.
Trading of these three commodities is the result of the extension of the existing licensing agreement that the JSE holds with the CME Group - the world's largest derivatives market.
Investors can assess benchmark gold prices from the CME Group's Chicago Mercantile Exchange and platinum and crude oil prices from its New York Mercantile Exchange.
South Africa is the largest platinum producer and the fourth-largest gold producer so it makes sense to offer South African investors, as well as gold and platinum producers, the opportunity to gain exposure or hedge their production.
Other benefits are that contracts are rand denominated, settled in rands and no foreign exchange permission is required for corporations or individuals. In addition, smaller contract sizes have been adopted for the South African market and trading on the exchange offers guaranteed settlement, transparency and daily position revaluation. Any South African can trade these derivatives through a JSE-registered commodities broker.
In the present sociopolitical climate, dinner party conversation tends to concentrate on the World Cup, potholes, and wishful thinking for the commencement of lifestyle audits of our politicians. However, it is perhaps appropriate to remind ourselves of some of the areas of excellence in the country, in particular, the smooth way in which our economy is managed. Just compare our budget deficit with those currently being presented in Europe.
Especially given the large number of rights issues currently popping up in our markets, I thought it would make sense to explain how to value a right.
Firstly, a right is often used by a listed company to raise needed funds while prevent shareholder interests being dilute. The option (or "right") to buy more shares in the company for cash is issed to existing shareholders per a predetermined ratio per share held.
Thus, a Myriad shareholder with 100 MYD shares will get 79.16 (rounded down) rights that can be converted into shares if s/he is willing to pay 80c per right / share.
These rights are renounceable (i.e. can be sold or given to anybody) and expire on a specific day in about a months time.
As these rights are renounceable, the JSE has actually listed them and does so by placing an "N" at the end of the share code: "MYDN". This opens up the market to non-shareholders to acquire MYD shares at 80c.
The interesting fact is that MYD shares closed at 88c at the end of last week.
So, what are the rights worth?
If you can buy a right on the market to acquire MYD shares at 80c and then resell the share directly into the market at 88c, you are making a 8c profit. Thus--unless this arbitrage opportunity is allowed to exist--the rights should trade at around 8c.
But, bear in mind that the rights can only be excersised in one months time (mid-April), thus you cannot immediately make the 8c profit. Because of this you need to present value the profit and (rounding down) would mean that the right is actually worth around 7c.
Also, the right's value should rise with the discount rate towards 8c (assuming the MYD share price stays constant at 88c) at it gets nearer to the excersise date.
Please bear in mind that this is an extremely basic example and ignores various other complications, like the fact that Myriad's rights issue is underwritten by its major shareholders and its funds earmarked to settling a major acquisition that fundamentally changes the Group. It also ignores any anticipated ex-rights share price drop due to dilution from the added equity and how this would change the value of the right.
Bear in mind that reported profits are always going to be historical in nature, thus these recently reported declines in small cap stock profits attribute to six months to a year ago.
The real question is whether this is the trough of the profit slump and things will pick up in the next six months to a year? Personally, I think that when compared to the previous year, the next one will generally be better for most small caps.
Looking at the trading updates closer, RBA has reported that it is expecting to report a loss of between R31 million and R37 million. This translates into a loss per share of between 10c and 12c and the business blames this on "...the most difficult trading period in RBA`s history."
The AltX-listed waste management group, Interwaste, also reports that it expects EPS and HEPS for the year to decrease by between 30% and 50%.
IWE's performance is better than Hardware Warehouse's as during the week the latter reported that it expects its EPS to drop from the previous period's 11.42c to between 0.11c and 0.34c.
None of these trading updates are close to as bad as Vunani's, but the latter was expected. Vunani has major market exposure through its numerous investments and it financial services division is relatively small and exposed to the current harsh environment. The fledging financial group expects that its previous period's loss of R784 million will be reduced by more than 20%, but "...at this stage, the company is unable to quantify, with the degree of certainty required for a more accurate update, the expected basic and headline loss per share for the year ended 31 December 2009 and will release a further announcement containing such detail as soon as possible."