The ability to economically source, transport and sell fresh (i.e. time-sensitive & easily spoilable) produce at scale is a deeply geographical competitive advantage involving a surprising amount of complexity. Shoprite (SHP) only managed this in Africa by actively building up local supply chains in each of its countries to support its own retail footprint. Likewise,…
How is EOH’s Turnaround Going
Following its dramatic fall from grace, EOH’s new management team have dug in deep, swept clean and driven a commendable operating turnaround. I have full respect for the excellent job they have done here. It is not an easy task to turn a service firm around. Service firms tend to trade based on reputation (services…
Who’s bidding for Long4Life?
Long4Life (code: L4L) published surprisingly good H1:22 results and, importantly, beat many FY 19 high-water marks. The Group has done well over a difficult period. Founder and CEO, Brian Joffe, has also decided to step backwards and into the Chairman’s role (article). Most importantly and probably key to the recent share price rally, the Group…
Questioning RAIN’s Valuation
Empowered investment company, African Rainbow Capital (code: AIL), reported its FY 21 results last week. The Group reported a +16.3% rise in their so-called Intrinsic Portfolio Value to R12.3bn, albeit once the recent dilutive capital raise is excluded, the Group saw its Intrinsic NAV (INAV) fall -8.1% y/y. Plenty has been written about this HoldCo’s…
Master Drilling: Cylinders Starting to Fire
Logically, as shallow, easily mined minerals are exploited, the world’s remaining minerals are getting deeper underground. While these tailwinds are fantastic for those well-positioned businesses that offer solutions to underground miners, the multi-year commodity and mining hiatus has been a tough period for all involved. This is clearly noticeable when looking at the Fochville-based, global…
ADvTech Update Highlights Quality
Listed educational group, ADvTech Ltd (code: ADH) put out a commendable trading statement for their H1:21E period. The Group—that owns Crawford International, Varsity College, & Rosebank College, amongst others—sees all its divisions delivering an increase in operating profit. Perhaps more importantly, if one-offs are excluded, the ADvTech’s profits are expected to be between 28% to…
Is Levi Strauss the next Nike?
The pandemic has accelerated the casualisation of the workplace, since all one has to do is look smart from the waist up in a Zoom meeting: Keith McLachlan from Integral Asset Management. Hear the interview here: LINK
Underappreciated Gold Mine
Of all the JSE-listed gold miners, I get the sense that Pan African Resources Plc (PAN) is just simply underappreciated. Why? Probably because it is relatively small. Yet, size is not necessarily correlated with quality, and the gold junior stacks up well against even the majors. Despite Pan African Resources’ modest R7.5bn market cap, the…
Ready. Set. Huda-GO!
ORIGINALLY APPEARING ON MONEYWEB Hudaco’s H1:21 results look spectacular when compared to H1:20 numbers, but H1:20 was mired in hard lockdown creating a distorted picture. H1:19 is far more comparative as a “normal” trading period. Against H1:19, Hudaco’s H1:21 revenues grew +6.5% p/p, margins expanded seeing Gross Profit rise +9.0% p/p, operating leverage rallied Operating…
Distell’s Worth to Heineken
Previously, I highlighted that Distell Group’s (code: DGH) was on a winning wicket coming out of this pandemic (Distell: Quietly Winning). Subsequently, Distell broke the news that Heineken has approached the Group regarding the acquisition of the majority of Distell’s business (see official SENS here). For the purposes of this article, let us ignore the…
Who Eats Whom
The current debate of whether inflation is transitionary or structural has a sub-argument that references rising soft commodity prices, food inflation and struggling consumers and argues that food producers will be caught in the middle. This narrative makes some sense, rising input costs cannot be fully passed onto struggling end-consumers and someone is going to…
Open Letter to Mining CEOs
Writing this letter occurred to me while listening to Simon Brown’s MoneywebNOW podcast this morning where he and his guests spoke around the current free cash flow most mines are making. What will the miners be doing with all this cash (flow)? It is certainly a topic amongst our team (we are bullish on commodities…
How Much Could EasyEquities Be Worth?
A combination of boredom, lack of dopamine alternatives, stimulus cheques and the gamification of markets led the USA-based online stockbroker, Robinhood, from relative obscurity into a multi-billion dollar empire. This slick operation has amassed an estimated 20 million brokerage accounts and attracted a last-recorded $20bn fair value (even though shares have reportedly traded on the…
Winners in Lower-for-Longer
Mike Schüssler wrote a piece about how the pandemic-induced rate cuts are impacting South Africa (Economic recovery: Low rates are playing a starring role). Taking this further, I am going to build a top-down investment shopping list for those who believe that rates will remain low-for-longer and inflation benign. Simplistically, low interest rates are stimulative…
Company valuations: Why first principles matter most
‘The more variables going into a valuation, the more chance there is that that the outcome is actually rubbish’: Keith McLachlan, Integral Asset Management. I sometimes write better than I speak. Especially at 6am.. For the last answer of this interview, the key point I was trying to make is the following: All successful businesses…
Safer than Houses: Stor-Age Property
About five years ago I pointed out that the local commercial property sector (i.e. REITs) in South Africa was heading for trouble (see Part I and Part II). I would have preferred to be wrong but—and in no small part helped by the pandemic—this has played out as expected and almost every single REIT on…
Profiting Off Delistings
All shares prices on all stock markets around the world are minority valuations. They reflect what markets think an investment without control is worth. The moment an investor takes control of a company, though, they can—effectively—access the cash flows of that business. And, for this reason, that control is worth something. Therefore, bids to take…
How is South Africa Doing (right now)?
Earlier this week, Stats SA published a bleak GDP update for South Africa that saw the domestic economy shrink -7.0% y/y in 2020. Perhaps a little better than expected but still a huge contraction. But that was last year and is old news now. A more relevant question is how we are doing right now?…
Distell: Quietly Winning
Despite having most of its products effectively banned for a little over a fifth of the reporting period, Distell Group Holdings Ltd (code: DGH) published a sterling H1:21 result. Group revenue grew +3.8% y/y with volume growth of +0.8% y/y, profits and cash flows were equally strong and the Group’s balance sheet degeared further. Context…
Is Inflation Picking Up?
As with most of the world, South Africa’s inflation rate has been falling for a number of years. This becomes incredibly clear when you see it visually: Yet, globally bond yields are lifting, yield curves are pushing out, soft and hard commodities are rallying & energy prices are rising. All the indications are that inflation…
JSE-listed Preference Shares
Preference shares are an underappreciated asset class, particularly for income-seeking private investors who are less constrained than institutions when it comes to liquidity. But what are preference shares? Preference shares are shares with special rights attaching to them. Each preference share is unique but most have the following characteristics: Dividends: Preference shares typically pay a…
Trellidor: Building up to a Rally
Originally published over here. Cashbuild (CSB) recently indicated that their sales till end of December 2020 had jumped +24% y/y. Massmart too has indicated a strong second-half recovery in their Builders Warehouse sales with Spar’s BuildIT outfit echoing the same sentiment. While these are great results, they are not unique. Building materials, DIY and home…
Afrocentric vs. Discovery
ORIGINAL ARTICLE APPEARS HERE. Having listed on the JSE in 1999, Discovery Ltd (DSY) has been a phenomenal success generating early investors multiples of their money. The Group administers the Discovery Medical Aid (a separate legal entity to the listed company) and, through data mining, clever incentives and cross-selling, the Group has won huge medical…
Redefine Properties: Is this REIT-listic?
Late on Friday, Redefine Properties (RDF) published its long-awaited dividend announcement for the year-ended August 2020. You can find the full announcement here: LINK. A Real Estate Investment Trust (i.e. “REIT”) has some special privileges and they come with some onerous requirements. If you don’t satisfy the requirements of being a REIT, you lose the…
Timing Your Market Exits
‘A good exit starts with a good entry’ — Keith McLachlan. Full interview found here: LINK.
Finding value in SA’s small- and mid-cap sector
Diversification across sectors is the best hedge against bad luck, stresses Keith McLachlan in a Moneyweb interview. Find the full interview over here: LINK.
Small & Mid Cap Snap Back
Click on the embedded video below to play it.
How to Fix the JSE
We cannot fix problems if we cannot be honest enough to admit that they exist. If we are honest with ourselves, there is something deeply wrong with the JSE’s stock market and it appears systemic. One way to see it is that the JSE’s ecosystem is stuck in a negative feedback loop. Our stock market…