Spar Group (code: SPP) is the latest in a long line of South African retailers that have burnt their fingers trying to go offshore with their businesses. From Shoprite retreating from a range of African countries and Woolworths and Mr Price failing in Australia to Truworths’ continuing struggles with UK-based Office Retail Group, South African…
Tag: fundamentals
Santova: Not Smooth Sailing (Yet)
An unappreciated aspect of active investing is that it sometimes it looks somewhat “passive”. Instead of trading in and out of stocks, an active investor is constantly checking and confirming their views. Assuming the facts and their opinion remain the same, their investments remain the same and, thus, this process can often look like inactivity….
Reinet’s Hidden Giant
Back in the 2008 when Reinet Investments (RNI) was formed, most of its net asset value (NAV) was made up of British American Tobacco (BTI). While the tobacco giant still makes up about a quarter of Reinet’s NAV (Figure 1), the investment holding company’s major exposure is now the Pension Insurance Corporation (PIC) – see…
Which Earnings Figure to Use?
Previously, I wrote about “Which Valuation Matters?” and a key input in most valuations is what the company has earned. With the increasing abstraction of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and many management teams publishing their own “versions” of earnings (so-called “adjusted”, “normalized”, “core” or “underlying”, et al earnings), the next logical question is: what…
Market Should Drill into Master Drilling
A little over a year ago, I wrote about how I expected Master Drilling Group (MDI) to report strong results (Expect the Lights to be Shot Out). This wasn’t anything clever from my side. Rather it was noting that the Group’s key variables were moving in their favour: Order Book (a leading indicator for future…
Omnia: The Right Chemicals
Following a decade of intensive investment with meager returns and a bloated, debt-laden balance sheet, I was one of the skeptics in 2019 who saw Omnia’s R2bn rights issue as confirmation that they had lost their way as a diversified chemicals group. Normally, issuing equity to pay off debt is a very expensive way of…
Pick of the Education Stocks
Over the last month and a half, the three JSE-listed education stocks have reported their 2021 results (all have December year-ends, so the results are comparable). On the 23rd of February, private schooling group, Curro (COH), reported revenue growth of +15% from +9% learner growth (& fee increases), good cash generation and a strong recovery…
Introduction to Fundamental Investing
I recently hosted a four-part introductory course on fundamental investing. It is free and it is available to be watched in your leisure. If you get value from this, please share this wide and far. Part I – Fundamentals Part II – Valuations Part III – Portfolios Part IV – Case Study & Q&A
Timing Your Market Exits
‘A good exit starts with a good entry’ — Keith McLachlan. Full interview found here: LINK.
How to Fix the JSE
We cannot fix problems if we cannot be honest enough to admit that they exist. If we are honest with ourselves, there is something deeply wrong with the JSE’s stock market and it appears systemic. One way to see it is that the JSE’s ecosystem is stuck in a negative feedback loop. Our stock market…
Good Businesses Tend To Stay Good
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on January 24, 2018 I have a counter-intuitive argument that scale can create problems. Why do I say this? Anecdotally, we know that you cannot choose which stock to invest in based purely on the size of the company. We know that investing is not that easy. But can we prove…
Management Shareholding Abuses
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on June 21, 2018 A traditional view wants a listed company to have their management as large shareholders. This gives them skin in the game, aligns them to shareholders and incentivizes them to succeed. All perfectly good reasons. But, this did not prevent Steinhoff from happening. If anything, this was…
What Is & Is Not Fraud?
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on July 24, 2018 The American-styled short-selling model works on aggressive negative press releases, research and other PR stunts (now apparently including legions of anonymous Twitter accounts) to drive a share price down. Fair is fair, none of these actions are illegal if they disclose their beneficial interest. While this…
When Does Valuation Matter & When Doesn’t it?
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on October 5, 2018 Introduction: Fundamentals are what you get but valuation is how much you pay for it. The less you pay for a given set of fundamentals, the more you weight the odds in your favour that the investment will have a positive outcome. Hence, even if fundamentals are…
How Does Acquisitive Growth Work?
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on January 4, 2017 Due to consolidation accounting (or “Group accounting”) rules, when one company controls another one (from 50% + 1 vote up to full-control of 100%, depending on circumstances), that first company (or the “parent” company) gets to accounting for both the financial performance of itself and the financial performance of all…
Lies, Damned Lies & Adjusted Earnings
OLD ARTICLE – Originally posted on September 23, 2016 When investing in a listed share, you are buying part of a business and own a portion of its future profits (or losses). Therefore, the per share earnings of a listed company are a big deal for investors with shares rising and falling base on them (or at least…
Five Reasons Not To Invest In A Stock
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted April 1, 2016 Given the small cap space as a capital growth asset class and my predisposition towards being long, this website tends to be about which stocks to buy. Let me turn that on its head and give some (hopefully intuitive) pointers for which stocks to not buy. When you are…
The Value of Forecasts
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on June 30, 2015 In the context of the stock market and its underlying individual listed companies, what is the value of building, making and using forecasts? By their very nature, forecasts for companies are an attempt to anticipate the future earnings of a company. They are not a promise of what the…
Independence = Overrated; Incentive = Underrated
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on June 18, 2015 There is a lot emphasis on independence in various roles in financial markets. External auditors have to be independent, advisors hopefully too, wealth managers, some members of company Boards, and so on. All independent. But why? The theory goes that if a person is independent, then…
Key Attributes of a “Ten Bagger”
OLD ARTICLE – Original posted on September 1, 2014 A “ten bagger” is colloquial for a share price that rises a thousand percent or, in other words, makes you ten times your money. In some ways the Holy Grail of investments, the key consideration is how do you go about finding a ten bagger? Firstly,…
Look Beyond the Numbers
OLD ARTICLE – Originally posted on September 29, 2019 When analyzing a listed company for investment purposes, its financial statements are obviously a key variable to work through. If you have to ask ‘why’, then I kindly refer to this series of short webinars I did a few years back: Four Pillars of Fundamentals. While…